The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a slow start, having just picked up their first win of the season against the New York Giants. Only 10.1 per cent of teams who start 0–2 have ever made the playoffs. However, never before has an 0–2 team had Patrick Mahomes, so one would imagine they will be okay. Then, why the slow start if the Chiefs have Mahomes?
The team has certainly felt the temporary loss of their top two receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, due to suspension and injury, respectively. Rice is clearly the team’s best receiver, with well over a thousand career receiving yards in only twenty games. Worthy, on the other hand, is a speedster who racks up yards after the catch, and a gadget guy who can take screen passes and end-arounds for big plays.
In the absence of the two, the Chiefs’ offence currently looks toothless. They are a bit of a one-trick pony, focusing on throwing short passes underneath. In the team’s first win against the Giants, Mahomes only had five completions which travelled more than eight yards in the air, and fifteen of his twenty-two completions travelled five yards or fewer, with eight even going behind the line of scrimmage.
Chiefs fans can expect improvement when Rice and Worthy return, but they will still have other problems on offence with their run game. This offseason, the Chiefs traded away four-time All-Pro guard and massive offensive contributor Joe Thuney to cut costs as Mahomes’ new contract kicks in. As for the team’s running back talent, Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are simply not good enough. Opposing defences have been playing two high safeties against the Chiefs, limiting passing windows downfield, as well as playing nickel personnel that use an extra defensive back instead of a bigger body near the line. The lack of rushing threat has made it far too easy for opposing defences to stop the Chiefs’ already struggling passing attack.
The other side of the ball has also been a problem for Kansas City, as their defence lacks real difference-makers outside of Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie. The main issue has been down on the line of scrimmage. Jones is an elite player, but the rest of the defensive line has looked rough, with the exception of the team’s win against a bad Giants team. Opposing offensive lines have dominated the non-Jones linemen on runs, and the Chiefs’ defensive front has failed to pressure the quarterback on passing downs.
Against bad quarterbacks, you can rely on the blitz, but when you play MVP-calibre quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in the playoffs, the Chiefs will need to get pressure on them with four rushers to leave seven defenders in coverage. The Chiefs have lost a lot of talent in recent years as they try to build a roster around Mahomes. While the size of his new contract has certainly not helped, the real issue is that the Chiefs simply have not drafted well enough. As long as Mahomes is on the team, their championship window is open. But, they need to hit on more picks.
As for this season, the Chiefs will get Rice and Worthy back and should make the playoffs—barring a Mahomes or Jones injury—but their path to the Super Bowl does not look great. With the Buffalo Bills sitting at 4–0, becoming the number one seed in their conference is a long shot for Kansas City. Winning the American Football Conference (AFC) would likely require beating both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo, whereas if the Chiefs had the top seed, they would only need to beat one or the other. No team in the AFC is without its weaknesses, but—as currently constructed—fans should not expect the Chiefs to be the conference’s Super Bowl representative, let alone to beat the National Football Conference’s best in the big game.
